Atlanrafalcons NCAA Basketball Betting News

<< Hurricanes shut down Wake Forest
Coral Gables, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Riquna Williams and Stefanie Yderstrom each scored 14 points as the 10th-ranked Miami-Florida Hurricanes extended their winning streak to seven games with a 64-39 victory over Wake Forest. Shenise

<< Zeller, UNC hammer NC State
Chapel Hill, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tyler Zeller's double-double of 21 points and 15 rebounds powered seventh-ranked North Carolina to a 74-55 victory over the North Carolina State Wolfpack. Harrison Barnes had 15 points and Reggie Bullo

<< Brown to stay at Texas through 2020
Austin, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The University of Texas has agreed to a four- year contract extension with Mack Brown that will keep the head football coach on the Longhorns' sideline through 2020. Brown, 60, has been the head coach at T

<< Reds give P Arredondo 2-year contract
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cincinnati Reds have avoided arbitration with Jose Arredondo, signing the reliever to a two-year contract. Arredondo went 4-4 with a 3.23 earned run average in 53 appearances for the Reds last season

Datsyuk picked first in All-Star draft >>
Ottawa, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Detroit Red Wings center Pavel Datsyuk was the first overall pick Thursday in the NHL All-Star Fantasy Draft. A flipped puck was used to determine who got the first pick and Team Chara won the toss. Captain

BC Lions sign WR Bruce to extension >>
Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The BC Lions have signed veteran wide receiver Arland Bruce to a contract extension. Last August, the Lions acquired Bruce from Hamilton in exchange for a third- round selection in the 2012 CFL

Baylor stays perfect in rout of Oklahoma >>
Norman, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brittney Griner scored 18 points, had seven blocks and pulled down six rebounds as the top-ranked Baylor Bears remained perfect with an 89-58 win over Oklahoma. Odyssey Smith had 14 points, five rebou

Scott helps Virginia take down Boston College >>
Charlottesville, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Before arriving in Charlottesville, Tony Bennett completely transformed the culture and expectations of the Washington State basketball program. He's now doing the same in his third season

Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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