In the FCS Huddle: Patriot scholarship decision will affect Ivy
NCAA Football Betting Lines
02/14/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Some Ivy League football programs can look down the road and know their schedules already are completed for quite a while.
Princeton, for example, is booked through 2017, with some of the following seasons not far behind in the planning stage.
But some teams in the Ancient Eight might be double-checking to see if their schedules are marked in pencil and not ink. Monday's announcement by the Patriot League that it will start to offer football scholarships with the 2013 season will have some affect on scheduling with its sister league, the Ivy League, over the long term.
It's not that the non-scholarship Ivy schools are going to cut the cord on the Patriot League competition - far from it. But Ivy programs no doubt will look elsewhere for opponents a little more, especially when the maximum of 15 scholarships per recruiting class start to add up at Patriot schools and they get markedly better.
Princeton often plays all three of its non-league games against Patriot opponents, and it's the case on four of its next six schedules.
In future years, perhaps Princeton will schedule two Patriot opponents and look toward the Pioneer Football League, the only other non-scholarship FCS league beginning in 2013, or perhaps a scholarship school from a league lower in stature than the Patriot League, like the Northeast Conference or the Mid- Eastern Athletic Conference.
San Diego, from the PFL, already has built a relationship with Ivy competition, while Marist and Columbia are a strong geographical fit and have built a relationship.
PFL members like Butler (it has a home-and-home with Dartmouth over the next two seasons), Jacksonville, Dayton, Drake, Davidson, Campbell, even Mercer or Stetson when they begin play in 2013, could become more attractive to the Ivies. Such games would satisfy wide-spread alumni and develop more recruiting bases.
Ivy teams held their own this past season while going 3-3 against scholarship programs, but they were a combined 6-21 in the five prior seasons (2006-10), and that is not a welcomed trend to them.
Just looking to the past, Brown got out of its series with Holy Cross when the Crusaders had scholarships in the late 1980s and early 1990s and only renewed the relationship once the Patriot program dropped the scholarships.
Penn has played a lot of close games with Villanova in recent years, but the CAA Football program keeps winning them. The Quakers (Villanova and William & Mary) and Cornell (Fordham and Monmouth) are the only Ivy teams playing more than one scholarship program this season.
Harvard, like Penn a perennial Ivy power, has avoided playing scholarship opponents under veteran head coach Tim Murphy, enjoying rivalries with schools like Holy Cross and Lafayette. Of course, those Patriot League teams have scholarships on the way.
Georgetown will be in demand with more Ivy programs if, unlike the rest of the Patriot League, the Hoyas decide to keep offering only need-based financial aid and not the merit-based financial aid that is football scholarships.
Changes in scheduling between the Ivy and Patriot leagues might be subtle in upcoming years, but greater change is out there when future schedules start to have openings again and the Patriot scholarships keep adding up.
The two academically elite leagues have been great playing partners. Keeping the same relationship just may not be smart for the Ivy League.
Bogota, Colombia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Second seed Alexandra Dulgheru was a first-round upset victim Tuesday at the $220,000 XX Copa BBVA Colsanitas tennis tournament. Italian Karin Knapp drove out the Romanian Dulgheru 6-2, 6-2 on the red c
<< Fisher, Whisenhunt and Murphy added to NFL Competition Committee
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The National Football League on Tuesday named
head coaches Jeff Fisher of the St. Louis Rams and Ken Whisenhunt of the
Arizona Cardinals, along with Green Bay Packers president and chief executive
officer
<< This Week in Auto Racing February 17 - 19
Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's time to go racing again. Speedweeks
2012 at Daytona kicks off this weekend, with the Budweiser Shootout scheduled
for Saturday and then qualifying for the Daytona 500 slated for Sunday.
NASCAR
S
<< Rays to give Maddon extension
St. Petersburg, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Rays and manager Joe
Maddon have agreed on a three-year contract extension, according to The Tampa
Bay Tribune.
The Rays have scheduled a Wednesday morning press conference at T
<< Nuggets' Nene, Mozgov out vs. Suns
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Denver Nuggets will be without centers Nene
and Timofey Mozgov for Tuesday's game against the Suns.
Nene, who is averaging 13.4 points and 7.8 rebounds per game this season,
tweaked his left calf in
Doha, Qatar (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rising German Sabine Lisicki and last week's Pattaya City champion Daniela Hantuchova were a pair of first-round upset victims Tuesday at the $2.168 million Qatar Open. Angelique Kerber stayed red hot by comi
Troicki wins Rotterdam opener >>
Rotterdam, Netherlands (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Seventh seed Viktor Troicki posted
a first-round victory Tuesday at the $1.6 million ABN AMRO World Tennis
Tournament.
The Serbian Troicki topped wild card and Dutch crowd favorite Thiemo de Bakker
Budweiser Shootout: Return of drafting at Daytona? >>
Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date:
Saturday, February 18. Race: Budweiser Shootout. Site: Daytona International
Speedway. Track: 2.5-mile tri-oval. Start time: 8:10 p.m. (et). Laps: 75.
Miles: 187.5. 2011 Winn
Budweiser Shootout: Return of pack drafting at Daytona? >>
Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date:
Saturday, February 18. Race: Budweiser Shootout. Site: Daytona International
Speedway. Track: 2.5-mile tri-oval. Start time: 8:10 p.m. (et). Laps: 75.
Miles: 187.5. 2011 Winn
Syracuse's O'Quinn named MISL Player of Week >>
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Syracuse Silver Knights goalkeeper Bryan O'Quinn
was named the Major Indoor Soccer League's Player of the Week on Tuesday for
Week 15.
With regular starter Eric Reed Sidelined, O'Quinn made 17 saves in a 21-4
2007 Academy Award Betting : Oscars odds
The 79th Annual Academy Awards odds , which will air February 25th, is sparking an interest throughout the nation with the announcement of its nominees. As the public chooses their favorites, sportsbooks are creating odds for one of the biggest entertainment betting nights of the year.
Whether its at a “Oscar Party” or in an on line sportsbook, entertainment gambling on award shows represent a huge increase in betting. As the public speculation mounts, MySportsbook.com, the largest and most respected sportsbook on the web, posted odds on who is going home with a “Golden Best Friend.”
“ We see a majority of our entertainment wagers come from the Academy Awards,” said MySportsbook.com spokesperson, Tim Dalton. “This is a competition that applies to everyone. These are the people that entertain us on a daily basis and you want to see them win.”
MySportsbook.com posted the following odds for Academy Awards:
Odds to win the Achievement in Directing:
Alejandro González Iñárritu "Babel": 8/1
Martin Scorsese "The Departed": 2/17
Clint Eastwood "Letters From Iwo Jima: 4/1
Stephen Frears "The Queen": 12/1
Paul Greengrass "United 93": 15/1
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
Leonardo DiCaprio in "Blood Diamond": 11/1
Ryan Gosling in "Half Nelson": 20/1
Peter O’Toole in "Venus": 16/5
Will Smith in "The Pursuit of Happyness": 16/1
Forest Whitaker in "The Last King of Scotland": 1/11
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
Penélope Cruz in "Volver": 18/1
Judi Dench in "Notes on a Scandal": 15/1
Helen Mirren in "The Queen": 1/50
Meryl Streep in "The Devil Wears Prada": 10/1
Kate Winslet in "Little Children": 20/1
Best Animated Feature Film:
"Cars": 1/3
"Happy Feet": 2/1
"Monster House": 20/1
Best Foreign-Language Film of the Year:
"Water" – Canada: 22/1
"The Lives of Others" – Germany: 7/2
"After the Wedding" - Denmark: 24/1
"Days of Glory (Indigenes)" – Algeria: 23/1
"Pan's Labyrinth" - Mexico: 1/10
Odds to win the Best Live-Action Short Film:
"Binta and the Great Idea (Binta Y La Gran Idea)": 6/5
"Eramos Pocos (One Too Many)": 7/2
"Helmer & Son": 5/2
"The Saviour": 6/1
"West Bank Story": 7/2
Odds to win the Best Original Screenplay:
"Babel": 7/4
"Letters From Iwo Jima": 3/1
"Little Miss Sunshine": 21/20
"Pan's Labyrinth": 11/4
"The Queen": 5/4
Best Motion Picture of the Year:
"Babel": 11/4
"The Departed": 1/2
"Letters from Iwo Jima": 15/2
"Little Miss Sunshine": 17/10
"The Queen": 20/1
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:
Alan Arkin in "Little Miss Sunshine": 11/10
Jackie Earle Haley in "Little Children": 10/1
Djimon Hounsou in "Blood Diamond": 9/1
Eddie Murphy in "Dreamgirls": 2/5
Mark Wahlberg in "The Departed": 5/1
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
Adriana Barraza in "Babel": 14/1
Cate Blanchett in "Notes on a Scandal": 11/1
Abigail Breslin in "Little Miss Sunshine": 2/1
Jennifer Hudson in "Dreamgirls": 1/8
Rinko Kikuchi in "Babel": 11/1
Film To Win Most Oscars:
Dreamgirls: 2/3
Pans Labyrinth: 6/5
The Departed: 6/1
The Queen: 11/1
Babel: 15/1
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest: 11/1
Little Miss Sunshine: 15/1
Additional sports and entertainment odds can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.
How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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